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Welcome to our 2007 US Triple Crown Special, with focus on the best prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico and the Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park.
This is where you will find our previews to these important races, normally posted on Fridays, with race analyses going up within two days of each event.
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| The Belmont – it’s the weakest link |
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By Geir Stabell
Take a look at these names: Thomas Jo, Sunday Break, Royal Assault, Nolan’s Cat, Indy Storm and Sunriver. Have you heard of them all? Probably not. Can you guess what they have in common?
Well, remembering that Sunriver hit the board in Belmont Stakes a year ago, you may guess that’s what they all did. Correct, and the six did so within the last ten years. They had all done precious little going into the final leg of the Triple Crown where they all boosted the trifecta and superfecta payoffs. What did they achieve afterwards? Well, let’s put it this way; they all went on the ”reported missing” list.
How could these unknown runners make it into the top three in the Belmont? The answer is quite simple. The Belmont may be the serious stamina test in the series – but is also so often the weakest race.
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| Can Street Sense win the Triple Crown? |
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By Geir Stabell
It’s that time of the year. Again. When everyone is asking, asking... pondering on the possibility, probability, or perhaps one should say ’improbability’ of seeing a winner of the US Triple Crown. As a reader of this web site you need no explanation as to what that exactly is, nor a reminder of the fact that the Triple Crown has not been won since Affirmed carried Steve Cauthen to wins in all three legs back in 1978.
To some of us, ’78 seems like yesterday. Yours truly remembers a bit of that decade, as he just scraped in a ’child of the fifties’ – when born on the same day the legendary Petite Etoile won the Oaks at Epsom Downs. I had my first sigh of relief just when the fantastic filly was walking around in the paddock at the famous racecourse outside London. I had my most recent, when Street Sense powered past Hard Spun at Churchill Downs. Plenty of water has passed under the bridge between these two sighs.
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| Preakness Stakes: Todd says it’s a closer’s race |
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Pimlico Saturday: Nine go to post. Three of them filled the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby (G1) two weeks ago, and they will be the top three choices in the betting of the Preakness Stakes (G1). The impressive Derby winner Street Sense renews rivalrly with Hard Spun, who ran the race of his life at Churchill Downs, and Curlin, who was a game third without producing his best form.
If a horse is to sneak in between, never mind beat, these three, it will probably be trained by Todd Pletcher. Last year’s champion trainer came away with nothing after running five in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Saturday he runs two. King of the Roxy has been rested since his second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Circular Quay joins the fray after a sixt place finish in the Derby.
Pletcher let Circular Quay join the mix as he felt the race will set up well for a closer. Carl Nafzger would have no complaints if that turns out to be correct.
Full preview and analysis now posted.
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| When we get to Pimlico, money talks |
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By Geir Stabell
Isn’t it wonderful. When we get to the Preakness Stakes, and fancy a bet on the second leg of the Triple Crown, we already know which is the best 3-year-old colt around. Presumably it is the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Also, if we want to play with ’stats’ we can focus on just seven runnings – and it gives us the whole picture of this century... Well, don’t take this too seriously.
There are other keys to solving the Preakness, and they may get you better results. One is quite simple; follow the money. Whereas Fusaichi Pegasus and Street Sense are the only favorites to win at Churchill Downs over the past ten years, no fewer than five favorites have obliged at Pimlico over the same period. Barbaro could well have been a sixth.
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| Kentucky Derby: Stabell’s shortlist |
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Globeform editor and chief handicapper Geir Stabell gives his top five for the Kentucky Derby, and explains why it is – as he believes – quite an easy task to pick the top three plus two others.
He selected the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos at 17-1 in the future pool and made the first Saturday in May a nice payday last year too, with Barbaro at 7-1 selected in our raceday previews. These winners made up for his frustrating day when his 25-1 future bet Empire Maker lost to Funny Cide four years ago.
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