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How Derby day 'shocker'
T O Elvis was selected
Globeform value bet wins at 5-1, 25-1 with bookmakers
From our race preview:
T O ELVIS, a US bred son of Volatile, represents Japan, and he is a fast improving young sprinter. Definitely a horse to respect, he is on a four-race win streak. All his wins have come over 6 furlongs but the way he runs one would not doubt his ability to cover a seventh panel. The streak began in allowance company at Hanshin March '25, whereafter he took a break up to August, when he took a minor event at Chukyo by a length. He did not beat high class rivals on that occasion, but met better horses when winning a similar contest at Hanshin in September; this time outclassing a decent sprinter named Strength by 4 lengths. Strength was coming off two straight minor event wins and he ran second twice in such company on his following starts. T O Elvis was now beginning to look really smart but he had still not been in a race qualifying him for a Globeform ratings (his provisional mark was GF 110p).
Stepped up in class in the Capella Stakes, a 16-runner G3 event over 1200 metres at Nakayama in December, the Daisuke Takayanagi trainee put up his best performance to date. After travelling really well held up at the back, he powered home by 5 lengths from Yamanin Cerchi while stopping the clocks in a sharp 1:08.6 and thus getting close to the track record. He moved up to Globeform 119p on that occasion. The formlines are positive and there is probably better still to come from this 4yo. His runner-up in the Capella had won three Listed races on the trot going into the race and Ecoro Azel, who was beaten 6 lengths in third place, ran second in another stakes event next time out, then won a stakes himself.
Don't let it put you off this horse that Yamanin Cerchi and Gabby's Sister (who as fourth in the Capella) were both well beaten when 12th and 6th respectively in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint in Saudi Arabia in February; a race won by Bob Baffert's Imagination. Yamanin Cerchi ran poorly there but Gabby's Sister went down by 8 1/2 lengths behind Imagination, beaten 1 3/4 lengths further than in her Capella defeat behind T O Elvis (who had more up his sleeve). Gabby's Sister performed better in the Capella than she did in Saudi Arabia, and this is an interesting comparison; it suggests that T O Elvis is just as good as Imagination. The reason he bypassed the Saudi Cup meeting was that his connections decided to wait for the Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup day; but they changed that plan due to travel / safety issues. This means that T O Elvis will come off a long break when he goes for the Churchill Downs Stakes but it's probably not a cause for concern; he had been rested for more than three months when winning the Capella and his allowance win in August came after an even longer layoff. He is an interesting contender. Morning line 30-1 is way too big and he is well worth a bet.
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Moira 20-1, Straight No Chaser 14-1, Rebel's Romance 8-1, Henri Matisse 8-1
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9 Value bets recommended. 4 winners. 100 win on all 9 produced a 4,500 net profit / + 500% ROI
8 Breeders' Cup raceday winners
Starlust (34-1 raceday value bet), More Than Ready (20-1 bookmakers), Straight No Chaser,
Moira, Henri Matisse, Rebel's Romance, Lake Victoria, Thorpedo Anna
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Race of the week 1 / Race of the week 2
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1. Kehoe Beach Evs 2. Pounce 34-1
Globeform's Faultless Friday: 3 races, 3 winners!
Kehoe Beach and Rattle N Roll at 9-2 for a solid 13.4-1 double
Truly Quality - Balnikhov 13.2-1 Exacta
Saturday
$87 exacta
1. Mi Hermano Roman 11-1 2. Redistricting
another globeform value bet winner as skinner wins comfortably at 7-2, with tarantino 2nd, exacta pays 37-1
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globeform @ the breeders' cup
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Globeform's winners
at the Breeders' Cup 2023
Globeform ratings 57% winners (14 races; 8 top rated won)
Official ratings 28% winners (14 races; 4 top rated won)
Value Future bets
16-1 Master of The Seas / BC Mile
12-1 White Abarrio / BC Classic
16-1 Fierceness / BC Juvenile
Globeform's raceday betting plans
164-1 Trifecta: Master of The Seas, Mawj, Casa Creed
128-1 Trifecta: Inspiral, Warm Heart, Moira
65-1 Double: Fierceness & Unquestionable (2x bet recommended)
32-1 Tri straight: Cody's Wish, National Treas., Skippylongst. (one line)
16-1 Winner: Fierceness (also value future bet)
14-1 Pick 3: Cody's Wish, Inspiral, Goodnight Olive
14-1 straight Exacta: Inspiral, Warm Heart
12-1 Exacta: Auguste Rodin, Up to The mark
7-1 Exacta straight: Elite Power, Gunite
5-1 Double straight: Cody's Wish, Inspiral
4-1 raceday bookmakers: White Abarrio
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Globeform's Santa Anita Opening Weekend Special / Service opens Dec 21.
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Globeform @ Royal Ascot
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Selective betting paying off - again
128-1 Trifecta Albany Stakes:
Fairy Godmother, Simmering, Heavens Gate
12-1 Double: Auguste Rodin / Haatem
8-1 Exacta: Illinois, Highbury
7-2 Winner: Haatem
2-1 Winner: Bedtime Story (SP 11-8)
